A McKinsey Global Institute report says AI will cut demand for 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035 and create 41 million, but 11 million workers may need new careers. Miami is adding AI training and a Carnegie Mellon campus.
Miami AI jobs may hinge less on how many roles AI creates and more on how fast workers can reach them.
That is the core finding of a new McKinsey Global Institute report, covered by Fortune. It says AI and automation will cut demand for about 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035.
Growth elsewhere would create about 41 million, the report says. “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity,” its authors wrote.
What Does McKinsey Say About Career Switches?
In its base case, about 11 million workers would need to leave their occupations entirely. That is roughly 7% of the workforce, with a range of 6 million to 16 million.
McKinsey estimates about 770,000 people a year would need to move into a different field. That is roughly 3.6 times the historical average.
The report notes that about 788,000 workers a year made similar moves from 2019 to 2022. That was during the pandemic, and it caused no lasting damage.
Shrinking jobs are concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and transportation. Growth is in healthcare, construction and management.
Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times as likely as higher-wage workers to need a new occupation, according to the report.
Why Is the Path So Hard?
Only one in seven displaced workers has a direct path into a growing job. Nearly half face what McKinsey calls an “unpaved” path.
About 85% of growing jobs require a credential. About 76% cannot be done remotely, including work in hospitals, on construction sites and in data centers.
The report adds a practical point. Workers may “rationally decline a pathway that looks favorable on paper because they cannot absorb the interruption in income it requires.”
How Exposed Is Miami?
MAIN has reported local numbers. An MIT labor exposure map estimates AI could perform work equal to 360,000 Miami-area jobs, roughly 14% of the local workforce.
Those jobs are concentrated in customer service, administrative and entry-level roles tied to South Florida’s tourism economy. Leisure and hospitality employs more than 350,000 people here.
Young workers show the strain first. Nationally, the employment gap for 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles reached 19% in June 2026, up from 15% a year earlier.
MAIN has also covered why the AI job apocalypse has not yet shown up in national data. August unemployment was 4.1%.
What Is Miami Building?
Local institutions are adding pathways. Miami Dade College launched an Applied AI associate degree track for workers in AI-reshaped roles.
It also runs the AI Elite Talent Hub, a 10-month program with 15 industry partners. Students work on real business problems while continuing coursework.
Success will be measured by how many partners hire from the first cohort, MAIN reported.
Universities are the other lever. Ken Griffin committed $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon University on September 30. Of that, $2 billion funds a Miami campus planning to enroll students in 2028.
Vanderbilt is building a graduate campus in West Palm Beach focused on business, AI and data science. Developer Stephen Ross leads the fundraising with $50 million.
Richard Florida on Why Cities Win
Urbanist Richard Florida, who was not involved in the McKinsey report, told Fortune that big shifts have happened before.
“We used to have most people working in agriculture. Now 1% of the workforce works in agriculture,” he said.
He said employers now hire differently. They want people who are smart and can “build the business, work with customers, work with clients, work with others.”
Florida pointed to Canadians moving from Toronto to Miami for low taxes and economic opportunity. He said cognitive work concentrates in big cities.
In his view, early wealthy arrivals in South Florida learned they could bring their boats and family offices without their companies. Griffin, he said, “realized that it has to be a talent anchor.”
What Comes Next
McKinsey’s numbers are national projections, not local forecasts. Miami has local training programs and a new campus under way.
The test is whether those pathways reach the workers most exposed. Miami AI jobs will depend on that match.
Sources:
- “AI will create more jobs than it kills, McKinsey says. The catch: 11 million Americans may need new careers,” Catherina Gioino, Fortune
- “AI could force 11 million Americans into new careers by 2035, report finds,” Scripps News / Tampa Bay 28
- MAIN: The AI job apocalypse hasn't hit Miami's numbers. Ask why.
- MAIN: Young workers in AI-exposed jobs are losing ground; South Florida feels it twice
- MAIN: Miami Dade College builds a 10-month path into AI jobs
- MAIN: Carnegie Mellon's $3B Griffin gift lands in Wynwood
